Posted by: adityakhannamech | November 4, 2008

What next in Stock markets…

I am not an anlyst , not a blogger , not an expert in stock markets. I am someone who has followed the bull run of indian stock markets and now have seen the worst of it in the last 10 months.

Carnage started in january when sensex surged 21000 mark and many analyst predicted 30000 at the end of 2008. who would have imagined in the worst of their dreams that we would see levels of 8000 odd on sensex and 2500 on nifty.

People call it a bear market where the bulls are hurt and murdered brutally and nobody knows when it will stop.

Market is taking cues from global markets like USA , UK which are in recession .

Steps like repo rate cut by 150bps which came after many many years lifted the sentiment for 15 minutes. it seems like a ugly story . No positive news is accepted by our markets.

Just think about this!!!!!!

when crude rose to 140 $/barrel we had a great fall in markets and when it came back to 64 $ nothing really changed .

when inflation jumped to 12% we took it as a bad news for the markes and now at 11% nobody seems to react on that . 

When sensex was at 21000 people took their money out of their home and invested in stock markets expecting it to go towards  30000 and now at 8000 levels volumes have dried out. where are these investors. 

Stocks are at 4 years low and some stocks are trading below their book value . Its hard to imagine stocks at these prices .

Unitech one of the giants in infrastructure industries is hammerd like anything . the stock is trading 6% of its all time high value. this is something hard to believe. This is a large cap stock which used to trade at Rs 530 in januray 2008 and as of today is trading at Rs 31 only. This stock has lost 70% in 2 days (23 oct and 24 oct 2008) from 76 to 31. 

Reliance industries which is the pillar of stock markes over the years has lost 50% of its value this month from 2000 to 1000 .

Dlf another infrastructure giant from 1500 to 200 in one year.

and the list is endless

You see decline of 20% everyday and i dont blame investors becase who would like to depriciate their money in few days its rather better safe at banks and home but if you had the courage and confidence to buy a particular stock at 1500 levels in january 2008 then why would you hesitate buying it at a price of dirt.

It is time to buy and people should come and invest 10% at every dip. stock markets are the pillars of every economy . it cannot go to zero levels.

I see an intermediate bottom for the markets now and people have overreacted on the global news. The great indian story is intact . It is not the time to panic and sell but to wait and buy .

“BULL MARKETS ARE BORN WHEN THERE IS EXTREME PESSIMISSSM”

Bad times is the indicdation of a good time near by and it seems like new year will bring happy ending to this so called BEAR MARKET.

I will write more if appriciated .

thank you

…….WISHING EVERYONE A VERY HAPPY DIWALI………..

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Responses

  1. Very well written. You uncovered the true picture behind the current market scenario. Let us hope for the good with this coming new year.

  2. thanks for showing a very true picture of this bull & bear war, you wrote very well i just wanna something add to it …in every economy share market plays a vital role and every industry follows it, therefore be a investor i should think twice before investment and take decision very carefully.


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